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The Four Components of Market Structure
Tue, Dec 9, 2008, 16:00 GMT

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[u]Forex Analysis - Daily[/b]


[u]Today’s US Dollar Trading[/b]

•         USD fails to hold gains, equities surge on follow-on buying
•         Traders note technical trade helps to lift EURO and GBP
•         More two-way trade likely to develop


[u]Overnight Preview[/b]

•         Look for some follow-on buying of the majors
•         Expect two-way action ahead of US data in the morning


[u]Looking Ahead to Tuesday[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         10:00am USD Pending Home Sales m/m
•         10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism


Summary
Higher equities on follow-on strength from overnight positive stock prices helped to lift the majors against the USD with most pairs setting new highs against the Greenback in late trade. GBP regained the 1.4900 handle but still off the Asian highs of 1.5051 in New York; traders note that spillover strength from EURO is helping to hold GBP firmer. Additionally, cross-spreaders continued to buy Sterling on the crosses also bringing the upside in focus. Today’s close over the 1.4940 area is the highest close in six days suggesting a near-term bottom may be forming in that rate. EURO is two-full figures higher than Friday’s close suggesting that the rate is seriously under upside bias; highest close in nine days in that pair. Aggressive traders can add to both EURO and GBP longs on the New York close this afternoon. Despite a 300-plus rally in DJIA today USD/JPY failed to advance suggesting that re has offers waiting to hold the bulls in check; overnight high prints at 93.92 went unchallenged in New York trade and the pair closes negative on the day. USD/CHF is flirting with the important 1.2020 area on the close; making lows in late trade at 1.2017 but not holding there. Traders note that technical trade is likely to favor a close over the 1.2020 area as supportive and a close under there as negative; in my view the 1.2020 area is key to near-term direction and I would fade a rally if the market closes above 1.2020 area. USD/CAD dropped to lows at 1.2442 overnight but that number went unchallenged in New York trade. Currently a the 1.2520 area into the end of day the rate is still off the lows enough to encourage buying the next 24 hours. In my view, the USD is set to crash this week. Look for the Greenback to falter into Tuesday’s US data as again it will not be USD supportive. For the most part, the USD is benefiting mostly from very early flight-to-quality buying into the financial crisis; now that the signs are becoming clear that the crisis is mitigating and government programs are slowly beginning to resolve the credit crunch I think the USD is headed for at least a corrective pullback. Look for the Majors to extend to the upside within the next 24-48 hours in my view.


[u]GBP-USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.5200
Resistance 2: 1.5100/10
Resistance 1: 1.5050
Latest New York: 1.4912
Support 1: 1.4550
Support 2: 1.4460/70
Support 3: 1.4420


Comments
Rate rallies to start the week, some light stops reported. More upside now due on Tuesday as the market is shrugging off bearish news. Aggressive traders can look to ADD to open longs anytime looking for a push through and a close back above 1.5000. Some spillover from EURO likely. Analysts suggest 100 BP rate cut probably already fully factored in; good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names. Traders note solid two-way action with stops cleared across several levels in both directions. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
4:30am GBP Trade Balance
4:30am GBP DCLG HPI y/y
4:30am GBP Industrial Production m/m
Tentative GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
7:01pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate


[u]EURO-USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.3080
Resistance 2: 1.3000/10
Resistance 1: 1.2950/60
Latest New York: 1.2931
Support 1: 1.2580
Support 2: 1.2550
Support 3: 1.2480


Comments
Rate continues to hold at support, possible sovereign interest on the bid. Spillover from GBP helps hold the rate above support at 1.2750 area. Buyers are willing on dips. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.2850 area in my view. Bids are building under the 1.2600 area as expected; sell-off likely to be bought hard now. OK to try the long side again on a dip if not already long. Aggressive traders can ADD to open longs again under the 1.2750 area near-term. Traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2950 area in size likely to help create some two-way action. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German Trade Balance
2:45am EUR French Gov Budget Balance
2:45am EUR French Trade Balance
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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FREE-Live Forex Webinar!!
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[u]Forex Analysis - Daily[/b]

[u]Today’s US Dollar Trading[/b]

•         US data ignored for technical factors, equities pressure EURO
•         EURO makes a try for the 1.3000 handle and is rejected
•         Key support in GBP challenged


[u]Overnight Preview[/b]

•         Look for more two-way action next 24 hours


[u]Looking Ahead to Wednesday[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         10:00am USD Wholesale Inventories m/m
•         10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories
•         2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance


Summary
It was a disappointing day today for equities traders as the follow-on buying seen overnight failed to inspire traders in New York today; the DJIA shed over 200 points near the end of the day putting pressure on USD bears. Crude oil lost over $1.50/BBL as well putting conflicting fundamentals in play for equities traders. The net result for traders in the majors was solid two-way whipsaw over the course of New York trade; EURO rallying to post a nine-day high at 1.3002 looking very much like a test of the resting stops rumored to be at the 1.3030 area untouched before dropping back as equities gave back recent gains. Traders note that tight liquidity plagued the rate as EURO dropped briefly under the 1.2900 handle before rising to hold the 1.2920 area. New highs were welcome but traders note pressure from the 50 day MA likely offered technical traders a place to sell. GBP rallied off early lows at 1.4677 to rally past the 1.4800 handle looking like the rate would reverse hard into the end of day but sellers found a voice at the 1.4840 area and the rate dropped back to the near term pivot area of 1.4740 area; recent stops cleared on the dip under 1.4740 makes this area critical for both bulls and bears with downside follow-through selling likely to be met with bids as will upside be met with offers the next 24 hours. Traders expect more two-way action with the upside likely to cap around 1.5000 initially with downside support at 1.4680 area. USD/JPY followed the equities lower making new lows in New York at 91.92 and under pressure for a test of the 90.00 handle soon. Traders note that cross-spreaders for EURO and Sterling continue to draw the lead for the USD pairs. USD/CHF fell to a low print at 1.2006 before rallying off lows to trade back above the 1.2060 area; traders note that pressure from above the 1.2150 area is still intact but with a third day holding above the 1.2020 area the bears may be losing momentum in this pair. A surprise rate cut of 75 BP by the BOC was enough to encourage bulls to press USD/CAD higher for a high print early in New York at 1.2747 before the rate reversed to trade the low 1.2500 handle but buyers again showed up on the dip and the rate is firm now above the 1.2630 area. In my view, the whippy conditions suggest that the USD is trying hard to make a top at current levels with volumes lower it is clear that the USD is still under pressure on the rallies. No new highs for the USD were met with any conviction and sellers are likely to make a stand into the end of the week.


[u]GBP USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.5200
Resistance 2: 1.5100/10
Resistance 1: 1.5050
Latest New York: 1.4750
Support 1: 1.4550
Support 2: 1.4460/70
Support 3: 1.4420


Comments
Rate extends losses to make a test of lows; then rallies to test resistance. Support at 1.4720/30 area holds after stops cleared; rate is holding 1.4740 to close. More upside now due within 24 hours if dips continue to be bought above the 1.4720 area. Close back near the 1.4850 area will confirm willing buyers on the dips. Aggressive traders can look to ADD to open longs anytime looking for a push through and a close back above 1.5000. Some spillover from EURO likely. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names overnight. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
NONE


[u]EURO USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.3080
Resistance 2: 1.3050
Resistance 1: 1.3000/10
Latest New York: 1.2913
Support 1: 1.2580
Support 2: 1.2550
Support 3: 1.2480


Comments
Rate continues to hold at support. Spillover from GBP helps hold the rate above support at 1.2800/10 area. Buyers are willing on dips. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.2850 area in my view. Bids are likely building under the 1.2800 area now as expected; stops cleared near-term. Dips likely to be bought hard now that sellers couldn’t make a stand over 1.3000 with confidence on the first try; a test of stops at 1.3030 likely. Aggressive traders can ADD to open longs again. Stops building above the market around the 1.2950/60 area cleared so if sellers are active they may place them there again. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR German WPI m/m
2:45am EUR French Industrial Production m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Reply with quote  #5 
Free Live Forex Webinar
Introduction to Trading Risk Control
Thu, Dec 11, 2008, 16:00 GMT
Hosted by forex expert: Carlos Rocha of IdeasForex

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[u]Today’s US Dollar Trading[/b]

•         Equities firmer but two-way, majors follow-suit
•         EURO scores highs on stop-driven trade, closes firm
•         Technical levels in most pairs breached


[u]Overnight Preview[/b]

•         Look for the USD to remain two-way but under pressure
•         Tomorrow’s data likely to continue long-liquidation


[u]Looking Ahead to Thursday[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         8:30am USD Trade Balance
•         8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
•         8:30am USD Import Prices m/m
•         10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage


Summary
The USD lost ground today after a mixed open this morning; traders note that volumes remained lighter but there was no doubt which side the orders were on. After a slightly higher open in Equities this morning the prospects for the USD tracked the rise and fall in Equities during the day; turning lower into mid-day stocks posted losses before recovering to trade back through the opening range. The majors tracked the rise and fall through the day ultimately to end better on the day but off the traded highs. EURO rallied through stops said to be resting above the 1.3050 area for a high print at 1.3072 before dropping back under 1.3000 area briefly; overnight lows at 1.2902 went unchallenged in New York trade and the rate regained the 1.3000 handle to close in the 1.3030 area of previous resistance. Traders note that volumes were lighter into the highs despite stops being triggered. GBP was unable to match EURO’s rise but still managed to hold above the 1.4800 area without making a new high during New York trade. Cross spreaders in EURO/GBP were noted as lifting EURO as that rate rallied keeping some pressure on the Sterling side of the pair. USD/JPY made a high print at 93.04 but failed to find stops said to be resting above the 93.00 area; traders note the pressure is on the pair despite the better action in Equities. USD/CHF dropped into stops located at the 1.2000 area for a low print at 1.1925 well below the technical support area of the 1.1980 area; closing around the 1.1960 level suggests that the rate is finally turned the corner for more losses. Analysts say the 1.1880 area is key to hold the rate higher but traders remind that the rate is over-bought on some studies suggesting further pressure will result. USD/CAD also was under pressure making lows at 1.2484 overnight and finished lower on the day but the rate is well off the lows around the 1.2600 area into the close. In my view, across the board the greenback is showing additional signs of topping after today’s lower action. More US data is due tomorrow expected to be unfriendly to the USD so all things considered it looks like the USD will continue lower through the end of the week. Look for more two-way action overnight as traders continue to expect a long-liquidation break in the USD.


[u]GBP USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.5200
Resistance 2: 1.5100/10
Resistance 1: 1.5050
Latest New York: 1.4800
Support 1: 1.4550
Support 2: 1.4460/70
Support 3: 1.4420


Comments
Despite rally in EURO rate holds near opening levels, firms after yesterday’s drop. Rate continues to hold support at 1.4740. More upside now due within 24 hours if dips continue to be bought above the 1.4720 area. Close near the 1.4850 area or above will confirm willing buyers on the dips; might have to wait for tomorrow. Aggressive traders can look to ADD to open longs anytime looking for a push through and a close back above 1.5000. Some spillover from EURO likely. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names overnight. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Median Inflation Expectations
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations


[u]EURO USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.3150
Resistance 2: 1.3120
Resistance 1: 1.3080
Latest New York: 1.3016
Support 1: 1.2750
Support 2: 1.2680
Support 3: 1.2600


Comments
Rate continues to hold above previous support. Spillover from GBP helps hold the rate above support at 1.2950 area but lack of follow-through above 1.3050 a caution to the bulls. Buyers are willing on dips. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.3050 area now that stops are cleared in my view. Bids seen on dips traders say. Dips likely to be bought hard now that sellers couldn’t make a stand over 1.3000 with confidence on the third try this week; stops at 1.3080 and above likely the next target. Aggressive traders can ADD to open longs again. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
3:05am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin


Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Reply with quote  #6 
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[u]Overnight Asia/Europe[/b]

•         USD starts weaker in Asia, two-way action
•         Japan Tankan below forecast
•         Most pairs at technical S/R


[u]Today’s Economic Reports[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
•         9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
•         9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate
•         9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m
•         1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index


[u]Looking Ahead to Tuesday[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         8:30am USD Building Permits
•         8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
•         8:30am USD CPI m/m
•         8:30am USD Housing Starts
•         2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
•         2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate


Summary
The USD opens the week on a softer note and remains under light pressure at the start of New York trade. Overnight action was subdued with most of the action contained in Yen cross spreads after the release of Japan’s Tankan report; traders note that the report was very soft and below forecasts prompting some analysts to expect the BOJ to cut interest rates at some point soon. With rates at .3% from the BOJ it is difficult to expect that a rate cut would help much as the bank has held effectively a zero-rate policy since the 1990’s; USD/JPY is lower at 90.74 with highs at 91.37 and lows at 90.47 making for an inside range day with lower two-way action. Traders report bid interest on the dip to 90.50 area likely from option defense and profit-taking from shorts. Additionally, EURO/JPY was firmer after the Tankan report which helped to support USD/JPY. Both EURO and GBP are steady to mixed with both pairs in technical two-way action. Traders note that both pairs have reached or held technical resistance or projections making the potential for a pullback a bit higher today. With light economic news for this morning traders will likely focus on firmer equities and how they respond to TICS and housing data today. EURO rallied to a high print at 1.3500 before dropping back to test technical support at 1.3350/60 area; low prints at 1.3366. Traders note an Australian bank on the offer into the highs; the rate is firm after the offers opening New York around the 1.3450 area. GBP held Friday’s gains initially for a high print at 1.5068 before dropping back with EURO; low prints at 1.4919 holding the 1.4900 handle on the dip. Traders note that the BOE is unlikely to support the falling GBP and cite room for further rate cuts after the first of the year are likely. If the 1.5000 fails to hold on a closing basis this week the GBP is likely to correct lower some analysts suggest. USD/CHF continues lower, high prints at 1.1767 with lows at 1.1687 making a full retracement off the highs into technical support. Traders note that Gold prices may be finding it harder to move higher by year end keeping a bit of downward pressure on CHF; Oil is higher and they may be lending some pressure. USD/CAD remains under pressure after Fridays’ dead-cat-bounce; high prints at 1.2467 with lows at 1.2280 making the pair technically weak in my view. After today’s news all eyes will be on the FOMC statement due Tuesday with most analysts expecting a rate cut but differ on the size of the cut. Consensus is for a 50BP cut this week. In my view, the USD is continuing to top but the bulls will likely make a try for gains near-term; any strength in the USD is a great sell in my view.


[u]GBP USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.5150
Resistance 2: 1.5100/10
Resistance 1: 1.5080
Latest New York: 1.5025
Support 1: 1.4850
Support 2: 1.4740
Support 3: 1.4680


Comments
Two-way technical trade holds pair close to Friday’s action; lows holding at 1.4900/10 area. Bounce off early weakness suggests buyers are willing on dips; aggressive traders can buy the next dip in my view, look for prices around the 1.4780 area. Rally in EURO holds under pressure from cross spreaders; stops not enough to hold above 1.5050 area. Cross-spreaders likely keeping pressure on as GBP/EURO cross holds near lifetime high. Although close is above the 1.4850 area the failure at highs is a caution. Some spillover from EURO likely. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter


[u]EURO USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.3580
Resistance 2: 1.3520/30
Resistance 1: 1.3500
Latest New York: 1.3503
Support 1: 1.3360
Support 2: 1.3280
Support 3: 1.3200


Comments
Rate scores new high overnight into early New York but sellers take a stand; likely stops building in size over the 1.3520/30 area. Firm NY open likely to attract offers if US data is USD-supportive. Close at 1.3380 area last week makes a seven week high close and argues for more upside coming but a correction is likely. Likely bulls will lighten up. OK to buy a dip on a test of 1.3080 area near-term; dips likely to be bought hard now that sellers couldn’t make a stand over 1.3000 with confidence on the three tries last week. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI
4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI
5:00am EUR Employment Change q/q

Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5)

Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Reply with quote  #7 
FREE Live Forex Webinar
[i]Exploiting Order Flow and Liquidation Pressure[/b]
Tue, Dec 16, 2008, 16:00 GM
Hosted by our very own analysis provider - Jason Alan Jankovsky

Provides a better understanding of why zero-sum markets trade the way they do and provides insight to better take positions. Details on why price action is almost liquidation of losing positions and how that creates the order flow needed to win.
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[u]Today’s US Dollar Trading[/b]

•         USD fails to gain a foothold, ends lower across the board
•         Model accounts buying EURO, possibly going long
•         Volumes continue on the lighter side


[u]Overnight Preview[/b]

•         Look for the USD to consolidate overnight
•         Should get quiet ahead of US data tomorrow


[u]Looking Ahead to Tuesday[/b]
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•         8:30am USD Building Permits
•         8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
•         8:30am USD CPI m/m
•         8:30am USD Housing Starts
•         2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
•         2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate


Summary
The USD remains under pressure to end Monday as several technical levels fail putting the majors on the offensive into tomorrows’ FOMC meeting. Analysts remain optimistic for a 50 BP cut in rates adding a bit of weight to current USD sentiment. At this point the USD remains the worlds’ number 2 low-yielding currency with only the Yen providing less. With year-end repatriation into higher-yielding currencies as traders square-books with only a few solid trading days to go into year-end the USD appears likely to suffer more losses this week. Despite weaker equities today USD/JPY was able to hold the important 90.00 handle with lows at 90.14 during early New York trade; traders note the pair may be subject to a short-squeeze soon suggesting the USD may have a technical rally but as more news comes from the US this week a rally may be seen as a selling opportunity. Traders note that bids appeared under the 90.50 area and the rate closes firm above there. EURO and GBP rallied on stops and active buying; EURO high print at 1.3704 and GBP at 1.5380; lows overnight went unchallenged during New York trade. EURO saw model and momentum accounts scrambling to cover shorts and possibly enter longs anticipating further gains but traders note technical resistance and offers waiting around the 1.3750/60 area. GBP retreated a full handle under the highs to end New York around the 1.5250 area as sellers appeared at the highs. Traders note that a record high in the EURO/GBP rate suggests that the sell side of the GBP may be harder to overcome and more selling will appear on further strength. USD/CHF fell into the 1.1500 handle for a low print at 1.1563 before regaining the 1.1600 handle but with firmer Gold prices the rate is likely to suffer more losses; technical support in the rate is seen near the 1.1520/30 area overnight. USD/CAD low prints at 1.2229 were enough to encourage a small technical bounce but the rate was unable to hold the 1.2400 handle after a short-covering rally. The rate closes near the 1.2380 area in thin conditions. Across the board traders note that conditions were thin and some saw solid one-way trade but the USD has suffered technical damage today that will likely result in selling pressure on a rally. In my view, the USD continues to show signs of topping and with the rally above key resistance in EURO the picture continues to show more USD weakness coming. Look for any retracement of the USD to result in buying of major pairs.


[u]GBP USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.5500/10
Resistance 2: 1.5450
Resistance 1: 1.5380
Latest New York: 1.5279
Support 1: 1.4850
Support 2: 1.4740
Support 3: 1.4680


Comments
Two-way technical trade holds pair lower until pressure from EURO lifts rate into resistance. Lows holding at 1.4900/10 area. Bounce off early weakness suggests buyers are willing on dips; aggressive traders can buy the next dip in my view, look for prices around the 1.4780 area on a break. Rally in EURO holds under pressure from cross spreaders; stops finally enough to hold above 1.5200 area. Cross-spreaders likely keeping pressure on as GBP/EURO cross holds near lifetime high. Although close is above the 1.4850 area the failure at highs is still a caution. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
Tentative GBP BOE Inflation Letter


[u]EURO USD Daily[/b]

Resistance 3: 1.3780
Resistance 2: 1.3750
Resistance 1: 1.3700/10
Latest New York: 1.3692
Support 1: 1.3360
Support 2: 1.3280
Support 3: 1.3200


Comments
Rate scores another new high in early New York but sellers take a stand above 1.3700; likely stops building in size over the 1.3750 area now. Close at 1.3380 area last week makes a seven week high close and argues for more upside coming but a correction is likely. Likely bulls will lighten up. OK to buy a dip on a test of 1.3080 area near-term; but that is less likely now that 1.3700 trades. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:45am EUR French CPI m/m
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI
4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI
5:00am EUR Employment Change q/q

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Forex Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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